Why 'how much do I need' is the wrong first question
The right first question is 'when do I want to stop, and on what terms?' Retiring at 55 with healthcare costs out of pocket is a different financial problem than retiring at 65 onto Medicare. Once you know the timing, the 'how much' resolves itself.
- Pre-65 retirement = self-funded healthcare bridge
- Sequence-of-returns risk dominates the first decade
- Roth conversion windows often live in early retirement
